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The verdict on Windows 8, and predictions for Windows 9

Back in September 2011, I posted this image in an article titled We’ll Know For Sure Next Year, and it’s been getting a lot of hits lately:

I think the graphic is wrong in a few ways — I thought 3.1 was only acceptable, 95 was good, and 98 was “meh” — and it’s missing Windows 2000, which I thought was good. It’s put Windows 8 under “meh”, as I always kick it into desktop mode, which effectively makes it Windows 7 with a couple of improvements and a downgraded Start menu. What’s your take?

pc sales year over year

Graph adapted from Stratechery. Click to see it at full size.

Last week’s post on Ben Thompson’s blog, Stratechery, looks at the prevailing wisdom that the steady decline in PC sales from 2010 on were caused by tablets and longer PC lifecycles and adds a third cause: Windows 8. While the drop in 2010 — the year the iPad came out — is the most dramatic, the next most precipitous drop came in the wake of Windows 8’s release. Thompson writes:

In other words, instead of alleviating the problems facing PCs – no reason to buy – Windows 8′s increased complexity added a reason not to buy. That was certainly the case in my family: in early 2013, when my father asked me for advice on a Windows computer, I found myself advising him to seek out Windows 7. Were he to have had a suitable computer, I likely would have advised him to do nothing at all.

It’s difficult to see where Microsoft goes from here; contrary to what you might expect, there is still minimal overlap between Windows 8 and Windows Phone, meaning apps made for one are incompatible with the other. Abandoning either means effectively starting from zero in that respective form factor – and pissing off a lot of partners. Yet there’s little question in my mind that the touch environment is hastening the decline of PCs suited for the Windows desktop, even as the desktop ruins what is honestly a rather delightful tablet experience.

My experience is pretty much the same as Thompson’s. I’ve helped a number of friends and family upgrade existing computers or buy new ones, and most of them, even those who bought touchscreen-equipped machines, have resisted Windows 8, considering the interface formerly known as Metro to be useless (if you’ll pardon the term) “window dressing”. Those who went with Windows 8 have generally kept it in desktop mode, and once Windows 8.1 came out, they followed the steps to make it boot into desktop mode and bypass “Modern UI” altogether.

As of this writing, Windows 8.1 is running on fewer than 25 million PCs at this moment, one of which is my sidekick machine, a ThinkPad T430. Considering that it’s a free upgrade and fixes a number of issues with Windows 8, this number is bad. Even Microsoft’s biggest non-“blue badge” evangelist, Paul Thurrot, has used the word “disaster” for this figure. In comparison, Samsung sold half as many Android-based tablets during Q4 2013, and Apple moved 25 million iPads in the same period.

build conference

The next Windows, whose codename is “Threshold” and whose official name will be Windows 9, is expected to ship in April 2015, one year after the upcoming Build conference. Microsoft’s biggest non-“blue badge” evangelist, Paul Thurrot, is already singing its praises in a number of posts:

For Windows 9, if the pattern holds true, it should be “good”. Until it comes out, I’ll have to say the same thing about Windows 8 back in 2011: We’ll know for sure next year.

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San Francisco’s entitlement culture trickles down

the new spirit of san francisco

Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. Click to the see the source.

You’ve probably heard of Angelhack founder Greg Gopman’s Facebook rant about the homeless in San Francisco, which included this neo-Dickensian gem:

The difference is in other cosmopolitan cities, the lower part of society keep to themselves. They sell small trinkets, beg coyly, stay quiet, and generally stay out of your way. They realize it’s a privilege to be in the civilized part of town and view themselves as guests. And that’s okay.

…and this one:

You can preach compassion, equality, and be the biggest lover in the world, but there is an area of town for degenerates and an area of town for the working class. There is nothing positive gained from having them so close to us. It’s a burden and a liability having them so close to us. Believe me, if they added the smallest iota of value I’d consider thinking different, but the crazy toothless lady who kicks everyone that gets too close to her cardboard box hasn’t made anyone’s life better in a while.

It’s a little odd that Gopman complained about the homeless, since he may have done his own little part to exacerbate their situation. SF Weekly reports that the fratboy from Florida (why am I not surprised?) first moved to San Francisco to get closer to the tech scene, he lived in city-subsidized affordable housing meant for low-income families, despite being single and not low-income.

Gopman has since deleted his Facebook post, but thanks to sites like Valleywag, it’ll remain online for some time.

peter shih - 10 things i hate about you

Screen shot of Peter Shih’s Medium post. Click to see at full size.

Gopman’s polemic was echo of an earlier post on Medium made by Celery founder Peter Shih, where he wrote a laundry list of his top ten peeves about San Francisco. One of them, of course, was the homeless:

San Francisco has some of the craziest homeless people I have ever seen in my life. Stop giving them money, you know they just buy alcohol and drugs with it right? Next time just hand them a handle of vodka and a pack of cigarettes, it’ll save everyone some trouble. I’m seriously tempted to start fucking with people and pay for homeless guys to ride the Powell street cable cars in the middle of the day, that ought to get the city’s attention.

Shih wasn’t afraid to extend his rant into other areas, including the women of San Francisco for being, whom he castigated for being, as he oh-so-charmingly put it, “49ers”:

No, not the football team, they’re great. I’m referring to all the girls who are obviously 4’s and behave like they are 9’s. Just because San Francisco has the worst Female to Male ratio in the known universe doesn’t give you the right to be a bitch all the time.

Like Gopman, once word about his post started getting around, Shih also deleted his screed. Unlike Gopman, but like Tommy Wiseau (who realized that people went to see his film The Room not because it was good, but because it was so, so bad), Shih retconned his post as a satirical piece.

office space underlings

This sort of behaviour is almost expected from tech leaders. From Steve Jobs to Bill Gates to Larry Ellison to Eric Raymond to Richard Stallman, many of these people exhibit some strong toolbag tendencies and are perhaps a lab accident away from becoming a supervillain. The problem is that our industry’s Bill Lumberghs’ behaviours are trickling down to the Peters, Michaels, and Sameers, if this Craigslist ad is any indication:

north beach apartment ad

Click the Craigslist ad screen shot to see it at full size.

Here’s the text of the ad:

$1400 Bedroom in North Beach Apartment (north beach / telegraph hill)

The Room: Your room is an unfinished room with closet space. You move in early February. Rent includes utilities and Internet.

The Setup: The two of us will share an apartment with one bathroom, small living area, and full kitchen. Each of us will have our own room. There are laundry facilities in the building.

Me: I am a professional who works in FiDi. I am clean. I don’t cook. I wake up before 7 a.m. and sleep before 10 p.m. I don’t smoke or engage in drug use.

You: You are quiet. You don’t talk on the phone. You don’t listen to music except through headphones. You work a lot. You spend most of your time at work or with a significant other whom you never bring to the apartment. You don’t cook regularly. You sleep early. You don’t smoke or engage in drug use. You are clean.

Our Roommate dynamic: We don’t talk during the work week. We barely talk on weekends. I passively aggressively punch you in the face if you leave dirty dishes in the sink. We clean the apartment every week. Maybe you have access to HBO, and we watch Game of Thrones in complete silence.

If interested, please e-mail your resume, proof of salary (e.g. paystub or offer letter), and the following information:

1. Gender
2. Annual Salary
3. Employer
4. Bedtime
5. Wake Time
6. Number of Times Per Week You Anticipate Cooking
7. Reason for Moving

There’s a possibility that this may be a little social experiment rather than a genuine post, but having travelled ’round those parts recently for a number of interviews and gatherings, there’s enough in the ad to suggest it’s genuine. Ah, Poe’s Law

Thanks to Tod Gemeuse for the heads-up about the ad!

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Blast from the past: “Rise from your grave!”

RISE FROM YOUR GRAVE

Animated GIF via brecht.

I pumped so many quarters into the arcade version of Altered Beast in the late ’80s, and in the early ’90s, I’m sure I wore out a controller or two on the Sega Genesis version.

For those of you who never got to play, someone’s posted a YouTube video showing a playthrough of the whole thing in a shade under fourteen minutes:

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Jeff Sandquist’s looking for a few good people to work at Twitter: Developer advocates, partner engineers, dev marketing people, and operations analysts

you want to work for jeff

Jeff Sandquist was a fellow Canadian at Microsoft, and we worked in similar areas, with me being a developer evangelist and him being Senior Director of Developer Relations. Earlier last year, he left Redmond and headed to San Francisco to assume his new role as Twitter’s Head of Developer and Platform Relations. Few companies have the reach, influence, and user base of Twitter, and Jeff’s one of the best developer relations guys in the field. I would love to work for him.

twitter-logo-transparentHe recently announced on his Facebook page that he’s hiring! He’s looking for:

  • Developer advocates
  • Partner engineers
  • “Developer marketing types”
  • Operations analysts

There are multiple openings for each of these positions, and they’re all based in San Francisco, where Twitter HQ is.

If you’re angling for one of the developer advocate positions, you should have these skills:

  • Mobile development (iOS and Android)
  • Web stack (in Twitter’s case, the standard HTML5 and JavaScript, with Python)
  • Data (working with their Firehose partners and API)
  • Evangelism: writing, speaking, and all those other soft skills you need to evangelize technology

Better still, Twitter won GlassDoor’s “Best Place to Work in Tech 2014” award:

Twitter’s a “work hard, play hard” kind of place, and Jeff’s a solid, great guy. If you’re a go-getter who wants to work with a great team in a great environment with a great director, send him your CV! He’s jeffsand@twitter.com and @JeffSand on Twitter. Tell him Joey the Accordion Guy sent you.

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Mobile technology, as predicted by “Star Trek”

Let’s start the first Global Nerdy post of 2014 with this poster showing how a lot of today’s tech seems to be derived from Star Trek:

star trek - predicting the future since 1966

My first thought was that the poster was missing Uhura’s earpiece, which we see in today’s Bluetooth earpieces:

uhura and bluetooth

This line of thinking is followed in greater detail in the 2005 TV documentary, How William Shatner Changed the World, which looks at how Star Trek inspired all sort of technology we see today, including the cellular phone:

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Mobile tech news roundup: Nearly two-thirds of Pornhub’s U.S. audience is viewing their vids on a mobile device, Samsung Galaxy Gear’s cringeworthy ad, and the mobile app quotes of the day

Nearly two-thirds of Pornhub’s U.S. audience views their videos on a mobile device, despite its 6- and 8-videos-a-day limits

viewing

Photo via Catsmob. Click to see the source.

pornhub logoOnce upon a time, the dating site OKCupid used to release interesting statistics based on the anonymized data that they collected from their users’ activities on the OKTrends blog. Then they were acquired by the considerably less interesting Match.com in 2011, and the posts featuring those interesting stats stopped.

Luckily for those of us who like facts and figures on that strange area where high-tech meets base desires, the folks at the adult video site Pornhub have taken up OKCupid’s slack. They’ve been releasing some interesting data over the year on their blog, Pornhub Insights. In their latest post, Pornhub 2013 Year in Review, one of the most interesting bits is that a majority of Pornhub’s U.S. viewers — nearly two-thirds! — enjoy pornhub on a smartphone (52% of visitors from the U.S.) or a tablet (10% of visitors from the U.S.).

Like most adult video sites, Pornhub’s videos are Flash-based, which would seem to rule out most mobile devices, as it’s either unsupported or runs terribly. If you choose to view Pornhub on a mobile device, you’ve got two options:

  • Via the web: This redirects you to their mobile-formatted site, which lets you download a maximum of 6 videos a day into your device’s video collection. You have to wait for the video to download completely before you view it. Once you’ve got it, it’s yours until you erase it.
  • Via the Android app: Google’s Play Store doesn’t allow porn apps, but since Android allows you to get apps from any source and not just the Play Store, you can get PornHub’s app directly from Pornhub (you’ll have to change your security settings to allow the installation of apps from outside the Play Store). With the app, you can view a maximum of 8 videos a day. Since Apple’s App Store has a no-porn policy and since it’s the only sanctioned way to get apps for your iDevice, iOS users don’t have the app option.

Pornhub’s mobile experience is unlike their desktop experience, which is all-you-can-eat-for-free for the non-premium content. I suppose that the convenience of viewing one’s adult videos on a nice portable platform trumps the unlimited access of doing so on a desktop or laptop.

Lest I come off like some kind of mobile porn expert, let me say right now that I had to figure this out by visiting Pornhub on my mobile devices. This should illustrate the sort of sacrifices I’m willing to make for the readers of Global Nerdy, and for science.

Samsung’s “Jack and Aimee” video for the Galaxy Note 3 and Galaxy Gear is a 21st-century Mentos commercial

are you geared up

Remember those cheesy Mentos ads from the 1990s, which would feature a protagonist in a bind who’d pop a Mentos (“The Freshmaker!”) and then come up for some clever way to overcome it? Samsung may have looked to them for inspiration in Are You Geared Up?, their latest ad for the Galaxy Gear smartwatch, which features a Euro-trashy protagonist named “Jack”, the all-too-easily impressed Aimee as the object of his infatuation, and a nameless, Galaxy Gear-less schlub who misses every chance to try some game on Aimee since all he has is a plain old smartphone. The ad is nowhere near subtle in its messaging: Guys with Galaxy Gear get laid. The Galaxy Gear is now the Axe Body Spray (a.k.a. “douchebag febreeze”) of wearables.

Mobile app quotes of the day: Dare Obasanjo

dare obasanjoDare Obasanjo is one of my favourite Microsofties, and he gets credit for not one, but two of the mobile app quotes of the day:

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Pivoting is the sincerest form of flattery (or: What the Android team did when the iPhone was announced)

Photoillustration of a woman photocopying an iPhone.

Relax, Fandroids. I kid because I care.

Cover of 'Dogfight' by Fred Vogelstein.“As a consumer, I was blown away,” says Googler Chris DeSalvo in a quote from Fred Vogelstein’s book, Dogfight, upon seeing the now-legendary January 9, 2007 Stevenote when he unveiled the first iPhone.

“I wanted one immediately,” DeSalvo continues. “But as a Google engineer, I thought ‘We’re going to have to start over.’

According to the Atlantic article The Day Google Had to ‘Start Over’ on Android, an excerpt from Dogfight, Google’s big concern at the time was Microsoft. It made sense at the time: They seemed to be making the right moves. If you remember those days, Windows Mobile 5.0 was the third revision of their mobile operating system, and true to the general rule about Microsoft revs, it was finally good enough. They’d lined up an impressive array of nearly 50 hardware partners, including HTC, who’d end up shipping the most WinMo phones, and the big coup: Palm, whom they’d convinced to build phones that ran WinMo. Their OS featured mobile versions of Office. The industry rumblings were that Microsoft would end up eating away at the dominant phone OS player at the time, Symbian. “Microsoft comes out fighting when threatened,” the conventional wisdom said. “Remember what happened in the browser wars?”

Here’s what was considered to be the game-changer that would make Microsoft a serious mobile threat: the Palm Treo 700w

Palm Treo 700w phone

The Palm Treo 700w.

The best smartphones of the era followed a design template that had been defined years earlier by the Blackberry: screen at the top, physical keyboard at the bottom, augmented by some kind of device to move the cursor (first a scroll wheel, then a D-pad, and optionally, a stylus).

Then this happened:

(If you haven’t seen it before or in a while, watch it again. You can almost feel the audience’s excitement in the opening moments, as Steve teases them with hints of what he’s about to announce. You can also feel the envy when Google’s Eric Schmidt comes onstage at the 51-minute mark — remember that he was on Apple’s board then.)

From the article:

On the day Jobs announced the iPhone, the director of the Android team, Andy Rubin, was six hundred miles away in Las Vegas, on his way to a meeting with one of the myriad handset makers and carriers that descend on the city for the Consumer Electronics Show. He reacted exactly as DeSalvo predicted. Rubin was so astonished by what Jobs was unveiling that, on his way to a meeting, he had his driver pull over so that he could finish watching the webcast.

“Holy crap,” he said to one of his colleagues in the car. “I guess we’re not going to ship that phone.”

Another key quote, this time from Ethan Beard, one of Android’s early biz dev people:

“We knew that Apple was going to announce a phone. Everyone knew that. We just didn’t think it would be that good.

With the announcement of the iPhone, the Android project, whose members had been working “sixty-tp-eighty-hour weeks for fifteen months — some for more than two years” made a pivot whose effects we’re still feeling today. The BlackBerry-like phone that they’d been working on — codename “Sooner”, with a physical keyboard, no touchscreen, and a general “me-too” design — was pushed aside. They filed mobile phone-related patents galore in September 2007. The iPhone forced them to rethink the OS and phone design, and from that came a new design, codenamed “Dream”. This pivot would require them to delay their first release by a year, and the end result was the HTC Dream, released in October 2008.

HTC Dream phone, shown in landscape mode with the sliding keyboard extended.

The HTC Dream.

As you can see, the Android weren’t so sure about all of Apple’s design decisions, hence the physical keyboard and trackball. Today’s phone designs tell you how those choices by the Android team worked out.

I’ll close with an observation based on the article by John “Daring Fireball” Gruber. He may be Apple’s freelance PR guy, but he’s often right, including in this case:

Remember a few years ago, at the height of the “Android is a ripoff of the iPhone” controversy, when Android supporters claimed that the similarities were just some sort of amazing coincidence, like Newton and Leibniz discovering calculus concurrently, because Android had started life a few years before the iPhone was introduced? Good times.

I’m going to get my paws on a copy of Dogfight and read it over the holidays. Expect a review of it in the coming weeks.