There are still some areas of the world that will see double-digit growth. While sales growth is slowing in most of Asia/Pacific, Western Europe, and Latin America, the hot spots are in the middle east, Africa, India, and Indonesia.
Cheap phones are expected to drive faster replacement cycles. As they put it in their press release, “the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years.”
More higher-end devices will be sold through financing plans. One example they cite is of Apple taking the reins by introducing their own financing: “Apple has taken the lead with its iPhone Upgrade Program, and several other vendors are expected to implement similar plans in the months ahead. These plans could represent the most effective way to get flagship devices into the hands of consumers while speeding up the upgrade cycle through trade-in and incentives.”
Here’s how the smartphone market share for mobile OS vendors looks like, according to IDC’s numbers:
They were so sure that the combination of two industry giants, Microsoft and Nokia, would create a juggernaut that would bring the Windows Phone OS to the number two position, ahead of iOS and BlackBerry.
“The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”
Gartner’s 2011 predictions for the 2015 smartphone market weren’t all that different:
But the prize for the most comically-wrong prediction about the 2015 smartphone market has to go to Pyramid Research, who predicted that Windows Phone would take over the number one spot:
As the late great Yogi Berra said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”.
It was just five summers ago, but it was a different time: the first-gen iPad and iPhone 4 had just been released, Android was just emerging from being awful to not-too-bad with version 2.2, a.k.a. “Froyo”, and Windows Phone 7 was still in beta. If I were to make the video today, I’d change its take-away message to “Sometime is now. Ditch the RIAs.”
In 1944, the OSS (Office of Strategic Services, the predecessor to the CIA) published the Simple Sabotage Field Manual,a “Sabotage for Dummies” guide filled with handy tips for resistance members in Europe. In 32 pages, it listed a number of acts of anti-Nazi disruption that could be carried out by ordinary people without military or spy training.
CIA employees Don Burke and Sean Dennehey, who revealed the connection between 1944 sabotage practices and 2015 office behavior.
What the CIA’s predecessor considered to be office sabotage techniques during World War II are normal office behaviors today.
Take a look at the sabotage tactics from the section titled General Interference with Organizations:
Here’s the text from that page:
(1) Insist on doing everything through “channels.” Never permit short-cuts to be taken in order to expedite decisions.
(2) Make “speeches.” Talk as frequently as possible and at great length. Illustrate your “points” by long anecdotes and accounts of per sonal experiences. Never hesitate to make a few appropriate “patriotic” comments.
(3) When possible, refer all matters to committees, for “further study and consideration.” Attempt to make the committees as large as possible — never less than five.
(4) Bring up irrelevant issues as frequently as possible.
(5) Haggle over precise wordings of communications, minutes, resolutions.
(6) Refer back to matters decided upon at the last meeting and attempt to re-open the question of the advisability of that decision.
(7) Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and urge your fellow-conferees to be “reasonable” and avoid haste which might result in embarrassments or difficulties later on.
(8) Be worried about the propriety of any decision — raise the question of whether such action as is contemplated lies within the jurisdiction of the group or whether it might conflict with the policy of some higher echelon.
If you’ve worked in an office for even one day, the odds are pretty good that you’ve seen at least one of these acts of sabotage.
Another office sabotage tip from the manual involved misusing carbon copies to slow things down: “In making carbon copies, make one too few, so that an extra copying job will have to be done”.
For you younger folks, carbon copying was a method of producing multiple copies of a typed letter in the days before photocopiers, never mind computers. This video shows how it was done (as well as why you should be thankful that we don’t live in the dark ages anymore):
Today, carbon copies live on in their descendant, the cc: field of emails (“cc” is short for “carbon copy”). And instead of making too few copies, the internet-era version is to send emails that are cc’d to as many people as possible. In its more innocent form, the sender is just trying to be inclusive, but is likely filling other people’s inboxes with messages that don’t necessarily apply to them. In its nastier version, it’s a way to snitch on someone or throw them under the bus by cc:ing their boss and ensuring that “the wrong words go in the right ears”. No matter the intent, the effect is the same: it disrupts work.
Saboteurs make you think that what they’re talking about is relevant and important when in reality what they’re saying is tangential, unimportant, or even inappropriate. They don’t know they’re doing it, so their earnestness and honesty helps make their case. And the people on the receiving end are instantly, innocently swept off course because they believe what they think they see or hear.
It’s not 1940s occupied Europe, so we can’t simply turn over our work saboteurs to our neighborhood friendly occupying army or take them behind the office and have them quietly shot, as tempting as it may seem. After all, we’re supposed to be more enlightened these days, and besides: we probably report to some of those saboteurs. The first step toward making our workplaces more productive is to recognize these behaviors for what they truly are.
If you’re not spooked out by downloading a file from the CIA (and likely adding another item to their file on you), you can download a scan of the book from them. It’s a 2.5 MB PDF file.
If you’re not familiar with what’s often called the Bechdel Test (or the Bechdel-Wallace Test), it’s an idea that appeared in Alison Bechdel’s comic Dykes to Watch Out For, and it points out a major problem of representation of women in popular fiction:
Click the comic to see it at full size.
As in the comic, the Bechdel Test is typically applied to movies (although you can apply it to any popular fiction medium). It’s been observed that if passing the test were a requirement, many Oscar nominees would be disqualified. If the Techdel test were mandatory for tech conferences, we may have to cancel a lot of plane and hotel reservations.
If you’d like to know about which movies pass and fail the Bechdel Test, there’s a site for you: bechdeltest.com.
All right, tech conference organizers: you know what your next challenge is!
